understanding the psychology of behaviorDisclaimer: the site is not popular enough to need one :)That Nervous Feeling- September 26, 2008 I am getting that nervous feeling again. If something materializes by Monday, good, we avert a sudden market drop. But we will not avert a declining market. Use market strength today to protect. I am shorting the SPY via March 09 Puts.http://echotoall.com/blog/2008/09/26/that-nervous-feeling/ The stand-out Bank- September 26, 2008 JPM. They are, by far, the ones who are taking most advantage of this current credit mess. I am seeing reports that the WaMu purchase will immediately add to earnings. By 2009 there will be a 50cent addition, and by 2011 a 70cent addition. In the near term they are sure to take a hit, as ...http://echotoall.com/blog/2008/09/26/the-stand-out-bank/ Market Thought look out below- September 26, 2008 Simply put&8230; once the republicans stated they want to create an alternative plan, the futures dropped. I am not a fan of bailouts, but I do know market psychology, and the market wants something to help the financial situation. IF A PLAN IS NOT APPROVED BEFORE THE MARKET OPEN ON MONDAY, 092908 will by our ...http://echotoall.com/blog/2008/09/25/market-thought-look-out-below/ GE- September 25, 2008 GE posted lower guidance, and cut their buy back due to the credit mess. (I was waiting to see it from them) But even with this cut its forward PE is still 12.3 (using 241.95).The economy is weak and GE proves it. Hence, my small initial positions. I am looking to continue to builda position in ...http://echotoall.com/blog/2008/09/25/ge/ Trades - the credit bailout- September 25, 2008 The $700B credit bailout will most likely pass soon (imo by Friday night), and that will have obvious positive consequences for financials. There should be a market pop on the approval of the bill, and I am playing the pop via GE (primarily) and JPM. GE&8217;s chart is simply horrible. The downward spiral is simply impressive ...http://echotoall.com/blog/2008/09/24/trades-the-credit-bailout/ Positioning- September 24, 2008 I started getting in to GE here for two reasons: 1. the indicated dividend is over 5% 2. a play on the bailout market pop we will see I allocated a bunch of capital to start playing the market, and I am starting to use it. I still think the markets go down, but the bailout (no matter ...http://echotoall.com/blog/2008/09/24/positioning/ Market Thought dont get too excited- September 24, 2008 Mr Buffett will be making 10% on $5 Billion&8230; wow, nice. We, the little people, were giving a suggested floor to GS with the $115sh potential common stock right to buy via the warrants he purchased. Make no mistake, this is good for the financials, but lets not get too excited here. There are ...http://echotoall.com/blog/2008/09/23/market-thought-dont-get-too-excited/ Breaking News!!!!!- September 23, 2008 Due to today&8217;s market decline the SEC declared NO SELLING ALLOWED. The SEC is a complete and utter JOKE&8230; as this post.http://echotoall.com/blog/2008/09/22/breaking-news/ Sector Rotation- September 22, 2008 Rotation back into the commodity names is taking place again. Many are overbought here, so becareful chasing, but I will start entering some positions on pull backs. The deterioration of PG&8217;s chart is validating the move. My focus for nowwill be on the USO, PBR and POT.http://echotoall.com/blog/2008/09/22/sector-rotation/ Market Thought sad day- September 20, 2008 Yesterday was a sad day for free markes. With the manipulated bubble forming spike upward, the market is no longer oversold, but not overbought either. The market may continue to move upward, but I do not see 1325 (let alone 1300) from breaking upward before the market gets too overbought. With that stated, I am slowly ...http://echotoall.com/blog/2008/09/20/market-thought-sad-day/ |